The Best Outfields In Bizarro World

(by Dan Mathers)

The only thing I know for sure about Phil Rogers is he must be a crazy person. The Chicago Tribune sportswriter recently wrote a piece for ESPN.com (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove06/columns/story?columnist=rogers_phil&id=2758754) in which he ranked the best outfields in the major leagues. Apparently, Rogers took the assignment to mean the best outfields in Bizarro World.

In his column, Rogers uses a healthy dose of non-logic, and he repeatedly contradicts his own arguments. His bio says he’s a baseball writer for the Tribune, but I’m guessing he covers soccer.

At the top of his list, Rogers declares the Angels outfield has the potential to be great. Vlad Guerrero’s production and ridiculous arm can’t be questioned. But he then banks his argument on Gary Matthews Jr. repeating the career year he had in 2006. To believe this will happen is blind optimism. GMJ’s signing was the second-worst of the offseason (only behind the historically-bad Gil Meche signing). He’ll turn 33 in August, he has bounced around his whole career and not been good enough to get lot of at-bats. Before last year, his highest batting average in a year he had more than 400 at-bats was .254. The most hits he ever had in a season prior to last year were 121; that same year he had 90 strikeouts. Last year he had a career-high 19 homers in a homer park with a stacked lineup around him. He had 79 RBIs. His previous high was 55, and before that his highest was 44. Then Rogers virtually ignores the third Angels outfielder, the oft-injured Garrett Anderson, whose production has fallen dramatically since 2003. If you are going to rank an outfield on potential and the unreasonable hope everything will go right, the Devil Rays remarkable young outfield should be at the top of the list, not the Angels. Since lists like this are usually based on what is likely to happen, the Angels should be much farther down.

Rogers puts the Tigers at Number Two. This isn’t terrible. The Tigers have a very good outfield, but they reached the World Series on the strength of their pitching, not their outfield. They are good, but probably not Number Two.

Number Three is kind of a shocker: The Atlanta Braves. Rogers writes Andrew Jones and Jeff Francoeur will give the Braves plenty of production. It’s hard to argue with that. He then says left field is a question mark, but the team has a reasonable platoon. That’s fine, except for the fact his rationale here is completely inconsistent for his reasons for ranking other teams (like the Red Sox and Yankees) farther down.

He puts the Mets at Number Four. Carlos Beltran is great. But after that they have The Ghost of Moises Alou, that guy who was good with the Expos 13 years ago. They also have Shawn Green, who hasn’t been great in years. Not a bad outfield, but, again, completely inconsistent with his other rankings. He puts the Yanks at Number Five because, he says, Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui are on the downside of their careers. Someone please explain to me how Damon and Matsui are more on the downside of their careers than Garrett Anderson, Shawn Green and Moises Alou. Please explain to me how their production isn’t good enough to rank better than the Braves who have a platoon in left field. The Red Sox are at Number Six. Again, explain to me how Drew’s health concerns bring the Sox below the Angels’ Garrett Anderson’s health concerns, or Moises Alou’s age concerns? Even with Coco’s production being at last year’s levels (which probably won’t happen, and will likely be better than Gary Matthews Jr.), the Sox should rank higher than this.

Rogers then puts the Cubs at Number Seven, even though they have a very deep outfield, and the Devil Rays at Number Eight, because apparently we only suspect the “ifs” will break right for some teams like the Angels and Braves, and not other teams.

If we used logic and a consistent approach for all teams, based on what is likely to happen, this is what the list should look like:

1. Yankees – Maybe Damon and Matsui are on the downside of their careers, but until they actually show a dip in production, you have to like an outfield with them and Abreu. Their defense might not be great, but it is good enough. And offensively they are the best trio in the game.
2. Devil Rays – Delmon Young might be a rookie, but the freakish talent he has is evident. Carl Crawford and Rocco Baldelli are studs who are just coming into their own. Any team would love to have this outfield, even the Red Sox.
3. Red Sox – Going into last year, the hype around Coco Crisp was way overblown. That and his injury set him up for a bad year. Don’t expect him to blow up and be a great player, but he is better than we’ve seen. And while Drew has his health concerns, he has been relatively healthy the last few years, at least as healthy – and more productive – than many other players in so-called elite outfields. Team the two of them up with Manny, and Wily Mo Pena’s potential as the fourth outfielder, and that’s a very good outfield.
4. Tigers – Sheffield will primarily DH. But when you factor him in as a fourth outfielder with Ordonez, Granderson and Monroe, that is a very good outfield. Ordonez was healthy last year, but his career has been plagued with problems, and there’s still a significant risk he’ll wind up on the DL again.
5. Mets – Beltran, Alou and Green make up a formidable outfield. But Alou and Green are well-past their best days. They will still be very good in a stacked Mets lineup.
6. Cubs – Another deep outfield with the addition of Cliff Floyd as a fourth outfielder and/or platoon with Matt Murton and Jacque Jones.
7. Braves – Jones is great. Francoeur is very good. But, come on Rogers, there is a hole in left field. They might still be a good outfield, but these other teams don’t have a hole in the outfield.
8. Angels – No pitchers fear Garrett Anderson anymore. And did I mention GMJ is going to turn 33 in August? That’s not an age when you start to break out and have a good career. Up until last year he was headed toward the MLB exit. Expect GMJ to hit no higher than .270.