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Monday, February 19, 2007
Thursday, February 15, 2007
Penny wise, pound foolish?
Penny wise, pound foolish?
I was shocked to read this morning in the New York Times piece, Uncertain Future Has Rivera Talking, that the Yankees have decided to let Mariano Rivera enter his walk year with any discussions about a contract extension.
What could be the possible reason for this decision? Has Mariano shown signs of slowing down? Is there a strong correlation between a closer’s age and his performance? Do the Yankee’s have a can’t-miss prospect waiting in the wings to take over the position for the league minimum? The answer to all of these questions is “NO.” Instead, it appears the Yankee’s have suddenly gone budget conscious.
As a life-long Red Sox fan, I’m elated by this news. Since he became the set-up man for John Wetland in the mid-90’s, Marino Rivera has been the one Yankee that I most feared. I’ve wished him ill, cursed the day he signed with the Yankees, and yelled some really nasty things at him from the back rows of Fenway during Game 4 of the 04 ALCS, but I have always respected him as the game’s best closer – by far.
Naturally, I was shocked at reading this morning’s article. How could the man who infamously signed Jared Wright to a big time deal have the gall to risk losing Marino Rivera? Obviously, Cashman still doesn’t understand value. After all, Rivera currently only gets 5% of the Yankee’s payroll, though he is clearly 1 or 2 on their most valuable list. Additionally, he’s not showing signs of slowing down: he’s pitched 70+ innings every year since ’99 except for ’02. In 06, his K to BB ratio was the best it’s been since 2001.
Add to all of this the fact that Rivera is likely to become the all time saves leader at some point in 08 or 09 and its unfathomable that the Yankees are risking losing him in the offseason to potentially save a million bucks of two. Here’s hoping he has a light’s out season (except when facing the Sox’s) and signs a huge contract with the Rangers next off-season.
That would teach Cashman about value!
I was shocked to read this morning in the New York Times piece, Uncertain Future Has Rivera Talking, that the Yankees have decided to let Mariano Rivera enter his walk year with any discussions about a contract extension.
What could be the possible reason for this decision? Has Mariano shown signs of slowing down? Is there a strong correlation between a closer’s age and his performance? Do the Yankee’s have a can’t-miss prospect waiting in the wings to take over the position for the league minimum? The answer to all of these questions is “NO.” Instead, it appears the Yankee’s have suddenly gone budget conscious.
As a life-long Red Sox fan, I’m elated by this news. Since he became the set-up man for John Wetland in the mid-90’s, Marino Rivera has been the one Yankee that I most feared. I’ve wished him ill, cursed the day he signed with the Yankees, and yelled some really nasty things at him from the back rows of Fenway during Game 4 of the 04 ALCS, but I have always respected him as the game’s best closer – by far.
Naturally, I was shocked at reading this morning’s article. How could the man who infamously signed Jared Wright to a big time deal have the gall to risk losing Marino Rivera? Obviously, Cashman still doesn’t understand value. After all, Rivera currently only gets 5% of the Yankee’s payroll, though he is clearly 1 or 2 on their most valuable list. Additionally, he’s not showing signs of slowing down: he’s pitched 70+ innings every year since ’99 except for ’02. In 06, his K to BB ratio was the best it’s been since 2001.
Add to all of this the fact that Rivera is likely to become the all time saves leader at some point in 08 or 09 and its unfathomable that the Yankees are risking losing him in the offseason to potentially save a million bucks of two. Here’s hoping he has a light’s out season (except when facing the Sox’s) and signs a huge contract with the Rangers next off-season.
That would teach Cashman about value!
Tuesday, February 13, 2007
The Best Outfields In Bizarro World
(by Dan Mathers)
The only thing I know for sure about Phil Rogers is he must be a crazy person. The Chicago Tribune sportswriter recently wrote a piece for ESPN.com (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove06/columns/story?columnist=rogers_phil&id=2758754) in which he ranked the best outfields in the major leagues. Apparently, Rogers took the assignment to mean the best outfields in Bizarro World.
In his column, Rogers uses a healthy dose of non-logic, and he repeatedly contradicts his own arguments. His bio says he’s a baseball writer for the Tribune, but I’m guessing he covers soccer.
At the top of his list, Rogers declares the Angels outfield has the potential to be great. Vlad Guerrero’s production and ridiculous arm can’t be questioned. But he then banks his argument on Gary Matthews Jr. repeating the career year he had in 2006. To believe this will happen is blind optimism. GMJ’s signing was the second-worst of the offseason (only behind the historically-bad Gil Meche signing). He’ll turn 33 in August, he has bounced around his whole career and not been good enough to get lot of at-bats. Before last year, his highest batting average in a year he had more than 400 at-bats was .254. The most hits he ever had in a season prior to last year were 121; that same year he had 90 strikeouts. Last year he had a career-high 19 homers in a homer park with a stacked lineup around him. He had 79 RBIs. His previous high was 55, and before that his highest was 44. Then Rogers virtually ignores the third Angels outfielder, the oft-injured Garrett Anderson, whose production has fallen dramatically since 2003. If you are going to rank an outfield on potential and the unreasonable hope everything will go right, the Devil Rays remarkable young outfield should be at the top of the list, not the Angels. Since lists like this are usually based on what is likely to happen, the Angels should be much farther down.
Rogers puts the Tigers at Number Two. This isn’t terrible. The Tigers have a very good outfield, but they reached the World Series on the strength of their pitching, not their outfield. They are good, but probably not Number Two.
Number Three is kind of a shocker: The Atlanta Braves. Rogers writes Andrew Jones and Jeff Francoeur will give the Braves plenty of production. It’s hard to argue with that. He then says left field is a question mark, but the team has a reasonable platoon. That’s fine, except for the fact his rationale here is completely inconsistent for his reasons for ranking other teams (like the Red Sox and Yankees) farther down.
He puts the Mets at Number Four. Carlos Beltran is great. But after that they have The Ghost of Moises Alou, that guy who was good with the Expos 13 years ago. They also have Shawn Green, who hasn’t been great in years. Not a bad outfield, but, again, completely inconsistent with his other rankings. He puts the Yanks at Number Five because, he says, Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui are on the downside of their careers. Someone please explain to me how Damon and Matsui are more on the downside of their careers than Garrett Anderson, Shawn Green and Moises Alou. Please explain to me how their production isn’t good enough to rank better than the Braves who have a platoon in left field. The Red Sox are at Number Six. Again, explain to me how Drew’s health concerns bring the Sox below the Angels’ Garrett Anderson’s health concerns, or Moises Alou’s age concerns? Even with Coco’s production being at last year’s levels (which probably won’t happen, and will likely be better than Gary Matthews Jr.), the Sox should rank higher than this.
Rogers then puts the Cubs at Number Seven, even though they have a very deep outfield, and the Devil Rays at Number Eight, because apparently we only suspect the “ifs” will break right for some teams like the Angels and Braves, and not other teams.
If we used logic and a consistent approach for all teams, based on what is likely to happen, this is what the list should look like:
1. Yankees – Maybe Damon and Matsui are on the downside of their careers, but until they actually show a dip in production, you have to like an outfield with them and Abreu. Their defense might not be great, but it is good enough. And offensively they are the best trio in the game.
2. Devil Rays – Delmon Young might be a rookie, but the freakish talent he has is evident. Carl Crawford and Rocco Baldelli are studs who are just coming into their own. Any team would love to have this outfield, even the Red Sox.
3. Red Sox – Going into last year, the hype around Coco Crisp was way overblown. That and his injury set him up for a bad year. Don’t expect him to blow up and be a great player, but he is better than we’ve seen. And while Drew has his health concerns, he has been relatively healthy the last few years, at least as healthy – and more productive – than many other players in so-called elite outfields. Team the two of them up with Manny, and Wily Mo Pena’s potential as the fourth outfielder, and that’s a very good outfield.
4. Tigers – Sheffield will primarily DH. But when you factor him in as a fourth outfielder with Ordonez, Granderson and Monroe, that is a very good outfield. Ordonez was healthy last year, but his career has been plagued with problems, and there’s still a significant risk he’ll wind up on the DL again.
5. Mets – Beltran, Alou and Green make up a formidable outfield. But Alou and Green are well-past their best days. They will still be very good in a stacked Mets lineup.
6. Cubs – Another deep outfield with the addition of Cliff Floyd as a fourth outfielder and/or platoon with Matt Murton and Jacque Jones.
7. Braves – Jones is great. Francoeur is very good. But, come on Rogers, there is a hole in left field. They might still be a good outfield, but these other teams don’t have a hole in the outfield.
8. Angels – No pitchers fear Garrett Anderson anymore. And did I mention GMJ is going to turn 33 in August? That’s not an age when you start to break out and have a good career. Up until last year he was headed toward the MLB exit. Expect GMJ to hit no higher than .270.
The only thing I know for sure about Phil Rogers is he must be a crazy person. The Chicago Tribune sportswriter recently wrote a piece for ESPN.com (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove06/columns/story?columnist=rogers_phil&id=2758754) in which he ranked the best outfields in the major leagues. Apparently, Rogers took the assignment to mean the best outfields in Bizarro World.
In his column, Rogers uses a healthy dose of non-logic, and he repeatedly contradicts his own arguments. His bio says he’s a baseball writer for the Tribune, but I’m guessing he covers soccer.
At the top of his list, Rogers declares the Angels outfield has the potential to be great. Vlad Guerrero’s production and ridiculous arm can’t be questioned. But he then banks his argument on Gary Matthews Jr. repeating the career year he had in 2006. To believe this will happen is blind optimism. GMJ’s signing was the second-worst of the offseason (only behind the historically-bad Gil Meche signing). He’ll turn 33 in August, he has bounced around his whole career and not been good enough to get lot of at-bats. Before last year, his highest batting average in a year he had more than 400 at-bats was .254. The most hits he ever had in a season prior to last year were 121; that same year he had 90 strikeouts. Last year he had a career-high 19 homers in a homer park with a stacked lineup around him. He had 79 RBIs. His previous high was 55, and before that his highest was 44. Then Rogers virtually ignores the third Angels outfielder, the oft-injured Garrett Anderson, whose production has fallen dramatically since 2003. If you are going to rank an outfield on potential and the unreasonable hope everything will go right, the Devil Rays remarkable young outfield should be at the top of the list, not the Angels. Since lists like this are usually based on what is likely to happen, the Angels should be much farther down.
Rogers puts the Tigers at Number Two. This isn’t terrible. The Tigers have a very good outfield, but they reached the World Series on the strength of their pitching, not their outfield. They are good, but probably not Number Two.
Number Three is kind of a shocker: The Atlanta Braves. Rogers writes Andrew Jones and Jeff Francoeur will give the Braves plenty of production. It’s hard to argue with that. He then says left field is a question mark, but the team has a reasonable platoon. That’s fine, except for the fact his rationale here is completely inconsistent for his reasons for ranking other teams (like the Red Sox and Yankees) farther down.
He puts the Mets at Number Four. Carlos Beltran is great. But after that they have The Ghost of Moises Alou, that guy who was good with the Expos 13 years ago. They also have Shawn Green, who hasn’t been great in years. Not a bad outfield, but, again, completely inconsistent with his other rankings. He puts the Yanks at Number Five because, he says, Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui are on the downside of their careers. Someone please explain to me how Damon and Matsui are more on the downside of their careers than Garrett Anderson, Shawn Green and Moises Alou. Please explain to me how their production isn’t good enough to rank better than the Braves who have a platoon in left field. The Red Sox are at Number Six. Again, explain to me how Drew’s health concerns bring the Sox below the Angels’ Garrett Anderson’s health concerns, or Moises Alou’s age concerns? Even with Coco’s production being at last year’s levels (which probably won’t happen, and will likely be better than Gary Matthews Jr.), the Sox should rank higher than this.
Rogers then puts the Cubs at Number Seven, even though they have a very deep outfield, and the Devil Rays at Number Eight, because apparently we only suspect the “ifs” will break right for some teams like the Angels and Braves, and not other teams.
If we used logic and a consistent approach for all teams, based on what is likely to happen, this is what the list should look like:
1. Yankees – Maybe Damon and Matsui are on the downside of their careers, but until they actually show a dip in production, you have to like an outfield with them and Abreu. Their defense might not be great, but it is good enough. And offensively they are the best trio in the game.
2. Devil Rays – Delmon Young might be a rookie, but the freakish talent he has is evident. Carl Crawford and Rocco Baldelli are studs who are just coming into their own. Any team would love to have this outfield, even the Red Sox.
3. Red Sox – Going into last year, the hype around Coco Crisp was way overblown. That and his injury set him up for a bad year. Don’t expect him to blow up and be a great player, but he is better than we’ve seen. And while Drew has his health concerns, he has been relatively healthy the last few years, at least as healthy – and more productive – than many other players in so-called elite outfields. Team the two of them up with Manny, and Wily Mo Pena’s potential as the fourth outfielder, and that’s a very good outfield.
4. Tigers – Sheffield will primarily DH. But when you factor him in as a fourth outfielder with Ordonez, Granderson and Monroe, that is a very good outfield. Ordonez was healthy last year, but his career has been plagued with problems, and there’s still a significant risk he’ll wind up on the DL again.
5. Mets – Beltran, Alou and Green make up a formidable outfield. But Alou and Green are well-past their best days. They will still be very good in a stacked Mets lineup.
6. Cubs – Another deep outfield with the addition of Cliff Floyd as a fourth outfielder and/or platoon with Matt Murton and Jacque Jones.
7. Braves – Jones is great. Francoeur is very good. But, come on Rogers, there is a hole in left field. They might still be a good outfield, but these other teams don’t have a hole in the outfield.
8. Angels – No pitchers fear Garrett Anderson anymore. And did I mention GMJ is going to turn 33 in August? That’s not an age when you start to break out and have a good career. Up until last year he was headed toward the MLB exit. Expect GMJ to hit no higher than .270.
Friday, February 9, 2007
Clemens' Tired Two-Step
(by Dan Mathers)
I don’t care if you’re a Sox fan or *Yanks fan, you have to be sick of the Roger Clemens song and dance. The word out of Round Rock, Texas, is he’s 50-50 on whether he’ll play again this year. Given that there are three teams willing to throw gobs of money at him just to pitch a short season, I’m 100-0 on that line being a load of Texas Longhorn dung. Of course, we’ve heard all of this before, many times before. The Step-Into-Retirement-Step-Out-And-Cash-In. It’s all very tired. Thankfully, Roger gave us a different step last week – a brand new line, but with all the same disingenuousness as his classics. “The only reason why I'd continued to play was because of my teammates calling me,” he told the Associated Press. Really, Roger? That’s the only reason? So, if the phone lines at the Clemens household don’t light up with calls from Brad Ausmus, Big Papi and Derek Jeter, Roger will retire, even when teams are ponying up 18 million other reasons to play (the only real reasons he’d play). Isn’t this the same guy who held out for more money at the beginning of the 1987 season, which helped the defending AL Champion Red Sox get off to a terrible start? Great teammate.
Now, don’t get me wrong. I’d love to see him pitching for the Sox next year. But it’s not because I like the guy. I don’t. But I like my team, and I’ll pull for anyone who can help them, whether that is Clemens, or even (gulp) J.D. Drew. And if Roger chooses the Yanks, can we finally just give his Number 21 to the first scrub minor-leaguer called up to pitch middle relief next April? What is the point of holding onto it? If the organization tried to retire it, fans would certainly have to do something irrational – like steal Theo’s Pearl Jam CDs. Or we take over the NESN studios, broadcast Pedro’s greatest games, and physically force Tom Caron to read a statement condemning the move . . . and referring to the fans as freedom fighters for Red Sox Nation. Yeah.
(*-Astros fans were not included with the Sox and Yanks because they probably don’t care or are oblivious to the ongoing saga. These are the same fans who, when the All-Star Game was played in their park, sat on their hands when Hank Aaron was being interviewed on-field. Chris Berman, after briefly starting the interview, had to pause and ask the fans to give a hand for Hammerin’ Hank. If that was in Boston, Berman wouldn’t have been able to ask a question for three minutes. Remember that scene in “Independence Day” when we fruitlessly nuke Houston? That was awesome.)
I don’t care if you’re a Sox fan or *Yanks fan, you have to be sick of the Roger Clemens song and dance. The word out of Round Rock, Texas, is he’s 50-50 on whether he’ll play again this year. Given that there are three teams willing to throw gobs of money at him just to pitch a short season, I’m 100-0 on that line being a load of Texas Longhorn dung. Of course, we’ve heard all of this before, many times before. The Step-Into-Retirement-Step-Out-And-Cash-In. It’s all very tired. Thankfully, Roger gave us a different step last week – a brand new line, but with all the same disingenuousness as his classics. “The only reason why I'd continued to play was because of my teammates calling me,” he told the Associated Press. Really, Roger? That’s the only reason? So, if the phone lines at the Clemens household don’t light up with calls from Brad Ausmus, Big Papi and Derek Jeter, Roger will retire, even when teams are ponying up 18 million other reasons to play (the only real reasons he’d play). Isn’t this the same guy who held out for more money at the beginning of the 1987 season, which helped the defending AL Champion Red Sox get off to a terrible start? Great teammate.
Now, don’t get me wrong. I’d love to see him pitching for the Sox next year. But it’s not because I like the guy. I don’t. But I like my team, and I’ll pull for anyone who can help them, whether that is Clemens, or even (gulp) J.D. Drew. And if Roger chooses the Yanks, can we finally just give his Number 21 to the first scrub minor-leaguer called up to pitch middle relief next April? What is the point of holding onto it? If the organization tried to retire it, fans would certainly have to do something irrational – like steal Theo’s Pearl Jam CDs. Or we take over the NESN studios, broadcast Pedro’s greatest games, and physically force Tom Caron to read a statement condemning the move . . . and referring to the fans as freedom fighters for Red Sox Nation. Yeah.
(*-Astros fans were not included with the Sox and Yanks because they probably don’t care or are oblivious to the ongoing saga. These are the same fans who, when the All-Star Game was played in their park, sat on their hands when Hank Aaron was being interviewed on-field. Chris Berman, after briefly starting the interview, had to pause and ask the fans to give a hand for Hammerin’ Hank. If that was in Boston, Berman wouldn’t have been able to ask a question for three minutes. Remember that scene in “Independence Day” when we fruitlessly nuke Houston? That was awesome.)
Thursday, February 8, 2007
While We Were Waiting . . .
(by Dan Mathers)
We planned to do this blog on MLBlogs, but after a week of technical difficulties (accompanied by loads of grumbling and swearing), we decided to start it on this site. We may still do MLBlogs, but stay tuned. All indications so far are that they charge bloggers $5 a month to blog there, but they don't invest a nickle of that into support. So, we'll wait and see if they can get their act together.
Unfortunately, the problems had to happen at a time when there were boatloads of Sox issues to blog about. Makes you thankful to be a Sox fan – at a time when the hot stove has gone cold for most of baseball, Sox Nation is rife with rumors and controversy. God I love this team. So, the following is a list – in brief -- of some of the issues I wanted to blog about recently:
-J.D. Drew Is Official: Let’s face it, much of Sox Nation was holding its breath, hoping the deal would fall apart. Has there ever been a Sox signing met with so much dread? Even when Canseco came to town, fans still wanted him here, hoping he’d stay healthy and inject some power into the Sox lineup (um, maybe “inject” isn’t the right thing to say here). What’s amazing is when you look at Drew’s numbers, he looks like he’ll be a huge addition to the team. And he’s been pretty healthy the last few years – much healthier than Trot Nixon. While his health is a legitimate concern, possibly the bigger issue is his attitude. His former manager, Tony LaRussa, openly questioned his heart, and newspaper reports said some Dodgers referred to him as “Nancy Drew” (one of the great nicknames of our time; even if he’s doing great I may still call him that). Plus, the Sox reached an agreement with Drew at the same time they were trying to ship out Manny. If they wanted an overpriced, injury-prone malcontent with no passion who irritates his own teammates and managers, why not just keep Manny -- at better money and much better production? The negative fan reaction has also made me wonder: could he be booed at Opening Day? Luckily, the Sox start the season on the road, so there’s a chance for him to turn it on and get the fans behind him. Plus, Sox fans want their players to succeed. Remember hoping Carl Everett would take some Prozac and pull it together . . . even though you hated everything about him? I expect even the fans who cringed at the Drew signing will give him the benefit of the doubt and cheer for him . . . at least until June.
-Todd Helton: The thin air must be getting to Colorado Rockies owner Charlie Monfort. One day he’s saying Helton’s contract is killing them, then once he begins negotiating with the Sox he says he’s not looking to dump salary. Funny thing is, Charlie, that’s exactly what you are doing and exactly what you need to do. The Rox have a good nucleus of young players, but they need more payroll flexibility to not just make a run at their division, but at the National League Championship. That won’t happen with Helton on their team. Despite his health issues in recent years, he’s still a very good player, and would fit nicely in Fenway. But his contract is one of the worst in baseball (maybe only behind Mike Hampton, Gary Matthews Jr. and Gil Meche), and the pool of teams that can take it on is more like a puddle. The Sox have all the negotiating leverage, so kudos to Theo for sticking to his guns and not making a foolish deal. By the way, did it remind you of anything when Monfort came out after the deal died saying he wanted to keep Helton, and Helton coming out saying he wanted to stay in Colorado? Maybe like a few years back A-Rod begging out of Texas, the Rangers trying desperately to trade him, then when things fell apart they held a press conference, made him team captain, and both sides said they wanted to remain together for a long time. Wasn’t it just two weeks later A-Rod was a Yankee?
-Schill Says Show Me The Money: On one hand, I thought it was silly of Curt Schilling to keep telling the Sox not to plan on him after this year, and then once February hit he said I am playing and you better sign me now. Here the Sox are, planning and budgeting for life without Schilling after this season, and suddenly he says you have eight weeks to sign me or I’m going to free agency. It didn’t seem right. Then Schill points out Gil Meche will be making $11 million for each of the next five years. And suddenly it becomes a no-brainer. I imagine over the next few years, every .500 pitcher will throw out Meche’s name when negotiating a contract, so you know the game’s elite pitchers have an eye on that too. Despite Schilling’s age, there’s no reason to think he won’t be a very productive pitcher next year. Even if he’s the team’s number three pitcher, in this market, for $13 million, you sign the man.
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